Consumer Sentiment
Stocks moved sideways today as did oil and gasoline.
Bonds lost value (increased interest rates) as concern about the future supply needs of the US government worry the market.
The Dollar gained ground again.
Gold lost $12, and is now just above the $850 to $860 test of recent support levels.
In the news today….
Consumer Sentiment rose today quite a bit. I am torn by this news. On the one hand, I don’t trust this measure as being accurate of anything, so I generally ignore it. On the other hand, this is the first sign of significant good news that we may be about to hit the bottom of consumer spending – or at least be close to stop the cliff dive that has been going on. Remember that consumer spending is the main driver of the US economy. Consumer sentiment is a future indicator – in other words if it starts to look good, it is a sign of the future, not a sign of today or the past. So, my conclusion is that I declare that this is the first real measure of the future flattening of our economic situation in the US – and we’ve got to continue watching the real data.
Stock Market Rally – the NYSE CEO came out today and said that the volume of the last 6 months doesn’t convince him that this is a rally built by investors, but rather a rally built by traders. He believes that stocks will retrace their gains, and this will turn out to have been a “summer rally.” While I usually avoid people’s opinions (except my own of course), the CEO of the NYSE is worth listening to. (especially since he echoes my own opinion).
Here are the last numbers for today:
Dow Jones 30 Industrial – 8131 (up 6 points)
10 Year Treasury Bond – 2.93% (up 0.10%)
Euro – $1.3047
Gold – $870 (down $12)
Oil – $50.33 (up $0.35)
Gasoline – $1.49 (up $0.02)
