The Economy Guy

I had the following question from one of the EconomyGuy readers, and I thought it was such a good question that I would spread my answers to the entire EconomyGuy readership.

The question was “What predictions do I have for the next six months?”

Here’s what I see:

1. A recession
2. Another BIG bank/brokerage company going under.
3. A lot of smaller banks going under
4. A continued and expanding credit crunch
5. no change in the Fed Funds rate = no change in prime before year end.
6. a slowly increasing longer term interest rates, and mortgage rates – maybe 1/4% increase.
7. a continuation of the stock bear market
8. housing prices continuing down with no end in sight
9. a great opportunity to buy gold
10. I can’t decide on exchange rate directions yet
11. a new president = possibility of crazy political decisions that could just make things worse in 2009.
    

Tom Harvey