Housing Still Taking A Hit

Issue: 9/24/07 Monday


Today was another boring day in most markets.  Oil was the big mover dropping another $1.42, falling below $80 per barrel with gasoline following it down. Thank goodness.  Currencies are slowly and quietly continuing their climb against the dollar.

The latest economic reports offered fresh evidence that consumer sentiment is taking a hit amid the worst housing slump in more than a decade.  In the reports, the Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index for September fell to its lowest level in almost two years and the National Association of Realtors reported sales of existing homes fell for a sixth straight month in August to the lowest point in five years.

The Consumer Confidence Index is closely followed by the Fed, and this fall in confidence should be showing through on lower consumer spending right now.  Consumer spending is the most important economic driver in the US economy.  The fall in housing is very predictable.  The only question is when will it stop falling?  Perhaps when all these funny loans that can’t be repaid are flushed out of the system, and the number of buyer and sellers get back in balance.  That could take 2 or 3 years.

The markets moves followed mostly negative economic news. Not all findings were bad, however. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond said economic growth picked up in September. Its manufacturing index for the month came in at 14, double the August reading of 7. A positive figure indicates growth, while negative figures denote a shrinking economy.  Manufacturing is the second most important economic driver in the economy.

These reports take on even more significance as Wall Street speculates about what the Federal Reserve’s next move will be after last week’s half-point interest rate cut. Data that show the economy is continuing to slow could bolster the case for further cuts when the Fed meets next month.

Here are Today’s closing details:

DJ30 – 13,779 (Up 20 points)

10 year US Treasury Bond – 4.61%  (Down 0.01%)

US Dollar - $1.4139/Euro.  Slow increase in Euro value.

Gold closed at $739 per ounce.

Oil Closed at $79.53 Now that it’s below $80, the question is how low will it go.

Gasoline is $2.04

 

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