The Economy Guy

Stocks jumped up today after FED Chairman Bernanke said our economy wouldn’t have a double dip recession.  But, people continued to worry about the European situation in addition.

Bonds, the Euro, Oil and gasoline all moved sideways.

Gold hit an ALL TIME HIGH of $1252, and fell back for a slight fall from yesterday’s close.

In the news today……

Nothing worth thinking about.

Tonight’s Dinner Conversation….

Israel – a Wild Card?  Israel is certainly in the news these days as it defends its borders by not allowing any ships to go to Gaza without first stopping in an Israeli port.  So, can this explode into something much worse? War?

Let’s look at the region to be able to answer that question.

1. Egypt – the big neighbor – agrees with Israel that Hamas in Gaza can’t just get any arms that Iran wants to send to them.  So, Egypt also blockades Gaza.  Egypt has allowed its military to deteriorate, so it is not a threat to Israel today.  So, we can put aside Egypt from consideration.
2. Syria – the pesky neighbor – is completely anti-Israel, and supports terrorism in the area – especially Lebanon.  But, Syria does not have any worthwhile military now either.
3. Lebanon is a pain, as is Jordan.  But, they aren’t a threat either.
4. That means that all the direct neighbors of Israel are not a military threat.  So, who is a threat?
5. How about Turkey?  Turkey used to be a very valuable ally to Israel, with sharing of intelligence.  However, Turkey has changed its government and is now hell bent on becoming the big bad Muslim leader in the region – so it is fast becoming anti-Israeli.  The one big thing that tempers Turkey from pushing its military toward Israel is the USA.  Turkey is a member of NATO, and as such, listens carefully to America.
6. How about Iran?  Well, now we are dealing with a real threat.  Iran hates Israel and has stated it wants to “wipe it off the face of the Earth.”  Iran has missiles that can reach Israel from Iran, and it is fast becoming a nuclear power – thanks to the lack of action by the US.  So, Iran is a real threat.
7. Israel has positioned one of its missile carrying submarines near Iran, and as Israel will always protect its people, Israel could easily have a pre-emptive strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities.
8. Last, but not least, Osama bin Laden is reported to be living in Iran for the past 5 years.  If so, our intelligence services are simply out of touch, but this is what is being reported by Kuwaiti and Turkish officials.
   

My conclusion is that you can ignore all the hoopla from the press about those boats going to Gaza.  Keep your eye on Iran.

Here are the last numbers for today:
Dow Jones 30 Industrial – 9940 (up 123)
10 Year Treasury Bond – 3.17% (down 0.01%)
Euro – $1.1951
Gold – $1236 (down $4)
Oil – $72.19 (up $0.75)
Gasoline – $1.99  (no change)