No Rice For You

Stocks moved sideways as did bonds today.  All the headline news for stocks was “good” as major companies reported increased earnings.  Profits are going down, and you had better know it now.  Only companies with good overseas situations (like McDonalds) will show improved profits.  Oil supplies increased pushing oil prices lower, and that was viewed (illogically) as a good sign for stocks….   Oil prices are so high that they will hit profits hard as the pressure of increased costs hit the bottom line of companies.

The dollar gained strength, but is well within a trading range that clearly shows that new Euro highs will be attempted in the future.  The real future of the dollar is in the hands of the Yen.  That’s the currency to watch.

Oil and gasoline were powerful today.  Have you noticed your local gasoline station price increases??  Gas is $3.60 here in Hawaii.

Gold was the “odd man out” today.  It fell $16 to $909 which makes it a good buy.  It if falls below $900 tomorrow, it will be a “buy with both hands sign.”

I’m predicting that stocks go down tomorrow as well as the dollar.  Now let’s see if I can really read those tea leaves.

In the news today…..

Sam’s Club has limited the sale of RICE to its customers.  You can only purchase 4 bags of white basmati rice.  Smaller restaurant’s are the main customers, and as rice prices go up, you can count on your Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Indian and Thai menus will increase.  A “limited supply” is VERY BAD NEWS for all people around the world.  If a big expendable-loving country like the USA can’t get rice, the world is in deep pooh.

One of my favorite quotes is “When the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.”  This is true beyond just the economic sense of this quote.  It also is true in the food availability sense of the quote.

The FED will continue giving away cheap money tomorrow with $75B in loans to our beloved banks.   Print, print, print, print….

The 30 year mortgage rate rose to 6.04% (up 0.30% in the week), and the 15 year mortgage rate rose to 5.60% (up 0.33% in the week.)  These are very steep increases in rates, and show the volatility of the mortgage market .  Also, the trend of 10 year Treasury Bonds is up slightly, and this influence influences an upward trend in mortgage rates too.

More interesting is that there is a major downtrend in the number of mortgage applications across the US over the past 9 months, and this trend is still firmly in place.  While this is not “new news”, it will also provide a decent indicator of when we get to the bottom of the housing market crisis.

Here are today’s numbers:
Dow Jones 30 Industrial – 12,763 (Up 43 points)
10 Year Treasury Bond – 3.73% (Up 0.01%)
Euro – $1.5887
Gold – $909 (Down $16)
Oil – $118.30 (Up $0.23)
Gasoline – $3.05 (Up $0.03) - up, up, and away!!!!!

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